Saturday, October 1, 2011

Replacing the Television

For years people have predicted that one technology or another would displace the television as the de facto night time activity for millions of Americans.  Time and again these predictions have rung hollow and television viewership continued to rise.
Recently there was an article in Bloomberg Businessweek discussing that more under 30s are now shunning paid TV entirely in leiu of streaming content.  Why is there such a shift in viewership from the traditional cable television subscription model among the youth?  I believe there are a few simple reasons: 
1)      The majority of cable programming is junk and streaming is easier to find good content
2)      Internet streaming such as Hulu or Netflix is cheaper by several factors compared to cable/dish ($10-15 per month vs. $40+)
3)      Streaming is vastly more portable than cable television
Let’s face it – anyone who pays for 70+ channels knows that most of the content is terrible.  Between Jersey Shore and the 12 incantations of “crazy guy pokes wild animals,” there just aren’t a lot of shows worth watching.  Couple that with the annoyance of programming a TV (if you have a DVR) instead of on demand programming plus the cost and you get some solid reasons to ditch the cable box.
I believe that there is an upcoming paradigm shift as it becomes easier to hook up a laptop or tablet to a TV where traditional cable will have to either adapt or be left behind.  Content is getting better daily for the streaming services and there will be consolidation in the industry which will allow for larger collections of programming in one place. 
Ultimately, I do think that this will kill television as we know it, but I’m not sure it will be a “fast kill.”  Demographics will continue to play a part as baby boomers will be slow to adopt and most seniors will not adopt at all.  Furthermore as this younger generation of early adopters begins to have children, chances are that they will keep around the cable box just so the kids have cartoons to watch – I know this is the main reason I have cable.  Finally, adoption will languish as long as live sporting events are difficult to access legally without a paid television subscription.  Iron out these bugs and wait another 5 years or so, and you really will see the demise of the television as we know it.

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